Policing, rule of law, state capacity and sustainable peace in Timor-Leste

This paper sets out to demonstrate the link between development, state capacity and peace, employing Timor-Leste as the case study. It employs the association between state capacity and development to illustrate where if state capacity is lacking or functions improperly there is likely to be a low level of state legitimacy. This in turn manifests as lack of respect for or failure of rule of law, developing as generalised lawlessness and anti-state activity and eventually manifesting as intra-state or civil conflict. In particular, policing is seen as a critical component in state legitimacy, being the 'front line' of the judicial system from which legitimacy ultimately derives. This issue is particularly critical in states emerging from traditional legal and judicial structures, but which have not yet articulated into 'rational-legal' structures. Ipso facto, key state institutions, such as the judicial system and police are required to function well, while these are alone not enough to guarantee peace, they are significant contributors to and guarantors of peace.

Social Investment and State Capacity. CEPS Working Document No. 419/February 2016

This paper looks at the difference between the levels and nature of social policy expenditure in northern and northwest European countries and the countries of southern, central, and eastern Europe, and examines the relationship between social investment and state capacity in these country groupings. The authors show that southern and eastern countries have a much greater preference for ‘compensating’ rather than ‘capacitating’ social policy spending. Furthermore, the state capacity in these countries is lower, which generates less state revenue. Based on these observations they conclude that low state capacity and low state revenue go hand in hand with the preference for capacitating social policies, as these policies involve less delegation and discretion than social investment policies. This paper shows that high state capacity is probably a necessary precondition for effective social investment policies, although some limited alternative paths do exist.

State building in Cambodia

This study examines the state building effort in Cambodia over the last two decades with illustrations from the fisheries subsector. Based on an eclectic approach, the author discusses the major challenges that Cambodia has been facing in its effort to enhance the state capacity to manage its natural resources.

The Mestizo State: Violence and State Formation in Peru (1980 – 2000)

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-07

Who Governs Educational Change? The Paradoxes of State Power and the Pursuit of Educational Reform in Post-Neoliberal Ecuador (2007-2015)

This study identifies and compares competing policy stories of key actors involved in the Ecuadorian education reform under President Rafael Correa from 2007-2015. By revealing these competing policy stories the study generates insights into the political and technical aspects of education reform in a context where state capacity has been eroded by decades of neoliberal policies. Since the elections in 2007, President Correa has focused much of his political effort and capital on reconstituting the state’s authority and capacity to not only formulate but also implement public policies. The concentration of power combined with a capacity building agenda allowed the Correa government to advance an ambitious comprehensive education reform with substantive results in equity and quality. At the same time the concentration of power has undermined a more inclusive and participatory approach which are essential for deepening and sustaining the reform. This study underscores both the limits and importance of state control over education; the inevitable conflicts and complexities associated with education reforms that focus on quality; and the limits and importance of participation in reform. Finally, it examines the analytical benefits of understanding governance, participation and quality as socially constructed concepts that are tied to normative and ideological interests.

The duty to report disease outbreaks : of interest or value? Lessons from H5N1

Since the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in 2003, it has been argued that there has been a substantial revision to the norm dictating the behaviour of states in the event of a disease outbreak. This article examines the evolution of the norm to ‘report and verify’ disease outbreaks and evaluates the extent to which this revised norm has begun to guide state behaviour. Examination of select East Asian countries affected by human infections of the H5N1 (avian influenza) virus strain reveals the need to further understand the mutually constitutive relationship between the value attached to prompt reporting against the capacity to report, and how states manage both in fulfilling their duty to report.

Instituições, interesses e tributação no Brasil e na Argentina : o novo desenvolvimentismo e os conflitos em torno da agenda tributária

Esta tese abordou como temas centrais a capacidade de extração tributária e os conflitos distributivos inerentes ao efetivo exercício da coleta de tributos pelo Estado. Nosso objetivo foi analisar os processos por trás das disputas em torno da tributação no Novo Desenvolvimentismo no Brasil (governos Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 2003-2010) e na Argentina (governos Néstor Kirchner, 2003-2007, e Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, 2007-2011), identificando os legados das trajetórias institucionais prévias sobre a formulação de suas agendas tributárias, bem como as estratégias empreendidas pelas coalizões governantes e opositoras para a promoção de mudanças nas instituições tributária. Para tanto, focalizamos o estudo dos conflitos em torno da CPMF, no Brasil, e das retenções às exportações, na Argentina. Sustentamos que a formação de coalizões desenvolvimentistas explica a formatação de consensos em torno do fortalecimento da capacidade de extração tributária e, por conseguinte, da capacidade de investir e de efetuar gastos sociais. As diferenças observadas nas capacidades extrativas no Brasil e na Argentina se explicam, fundamentalmente, pela construção de um duradouro consenso em torno do desenvolvimentismo, no Brasil, em contraste com a trajetória de marcada por disputas em torno das estratégias de desenvolvimento na Argentina. Ademais, a formação de coalizões de sustentação a determinadas agendas tributárias deve ser entendida no marco das disputas em torno da distribuição dos custos e dos benefícios decorrentes dessas políticas. Por isso, fez-se necessário analisar a articulação das elites econômicas dos dois países na defesa dos seus interesses: embora suas elites empresariais (industriais ou agropecuárias) apresentassem dificuldades históricas na articulação de ação coletiva em favor de agendas positivas, elas foram capazes de articularem suas ações em torno de interesses negativos, objetivando obstaculizar políticas tributárias que fossem de encontro aos seus interesses.

Implicações políticas da cooperação internacional para o desenvolvimento em Moçambique: da solidariedade socialista à trajetória tradicional do norte e à experiência emergente do sul (1975-2013)

Esta Tese examina as implicações políticas da cooperação internacional para o desenvolvimento de Moçambique em três momentos: (i) o período referente à solidariedade socialista; (ii) o contexto da cooperação tradicional Norte-Sul; (iii) a experiência (re) emergente da Cooperação Sul-Sul. Nossa incursão analítica mostra que foram cerca de 40 anos de cooperação internacional que permitiram uma série de transformações em nível político, econômico e social, e que construíram um país como um autêntico artefato de intervenção externa. Nesse sentido, analisam-se os efeitos políticos provocados pelas três propostas sugeridas de cooperação na esfera doméstica de Moçambique. Por um lado, constata-se que a cooperação internacional acaba por constituir-se em projeto de poder que afeta a produção de políticas públicas, a construção da autonomia e, mais recentemente, o processo de democratização em curso. Por outro, evidencia-se que os atores internacionais que atuam no campo da cooperação para o desenvolvimento em Moçambique agem imbuídos de seus respectivos interesses e agendas de política externa. Na relação entre os distintos atores e o Estado moçambicano, identificam-se alguns fatores-chave, tais como a fraca capacidade estatal, a existência de enormes assimetrias entre Moçambique e seus parceiros, o vício em receber cooperação que transforma essa relação em uma das principais fontes de manutenção do Estado, bem como a preservação das elites políticas tradicionais fatores que limitam o alcance dos objetivos reais de desenvolvimento que as distintas formas e modalidades de cooperação internacional prometem e buscam promover.

基于GIS的黄土丘陵区土壤水库库容组成及其定量分析——以陕北安塞县为例

以空间图形和数据库为基础,对土壤水库的相关技术指标、研究深度和静态库容组成等进行了描述、界定和计算。研究认为:安塞县5m深土层土壤水库总库容为1419.78mm/416156万m3,其中死库容占土壤总库容的21.08%,重力库容占土壤总库容的13.82%,有效库容占土壤总库容的65.10%,最大有效库容占总库容的78.92%;从土地利用类型方面来看,坡耕地和荒坡地总库容量最大,分别占研究区土壤水库总库容的37.65%和36.04%;从坡度分级方面来看,>25°和10°～15°坡度级别土壤总库容量最大,分别占研究区土壤水库总库容的41.50%和30.52%;峁坡和沟坡土壤水库库容组成基本相等。

Exploiting the Transients of Adaptation for RoQ Attacks on Internet Resources

In this paper, we expose an unorthodox adversarial attack that exploits the transients of a system's adaptive behavior, as opposed to its limited steady-state capacity. We show that a well orchestrated attack could introduce significant inefficiencies that could potentially deprive a network element from much of its capacity, or significantly reduce its service quality, while evading detection by consuming an unsuspicious, small fraction of that element's hijacked capacity. This type of attack stands in sharp contrast to traditional brute-force, sustained high-rate DoS attacks, as well as recently proposed attacks that exploit specific protocol settings such as TCP timeouts. We exemplify what we term as Reduction of Quality (RoQ) attacks by exposing the vulnerabilities of common adaptation mechanisms. We develop control-theoretic models and associated metrics to quantify these vulnerabilities. We present numerical and simulation results, which we validate with observations from real Internet experiments. Our findings motivate the need for the development of adaptation mechanisms that are resilient to these new forms of attacks.

La décentralisation au Niger : le cas de la mobilisation des ressources financières dans la ville de Niamey

La décentralisation implantée en 2004 au Niger, a pour objectif de promouvoir le développement « par le bas » et de diffuser les principes démocratiques dans les milieux locaux, afin d’améliorer les conditions de vie des populations. Les recherches sur le sujet font état d’un écart considérable entre les objectifs et les réalisations de la décentralisation. Les facteurs avancés pour expliquer cet écart sont entre autres, le faible appui technique et financier de l’État envers les collectivités territoriales ou encore la quasi-inexistence d’une fonction publique locale qualifiée et apte à prendre en charge les projets de décentralisation. Toutefois, ces observations s’avèrent insuffisantes pour rendre compte des difficultés rencontrées par les acteurs de la décentralisation au Niger. Nous affirmons que les partis politiques jouent un rôle fondamental dans le processus de décentralisations. Ceux-ci diffusent des stratégies d’influence politique et de patronage dans les arènes locales. Les stratégies des partis politiques entravent les initiatives des acteurs locaux, notamment leur capacité de mobilisation des ressources financières.

Efectos de la reducción del nivel del Lago Chad sobre la Seguridad Regional (Nigeria, Níger, Chad y Camerún) durante el período de 2000-2010

El Lago Chad ha sido durante varias décadas, una fuente de supervivencia económica para millones de personas que habitan en cuatro Estados a saber; Nigeria, Níger, Chad y Camerún. No obstante, el cambio climático, el aumento acelerado de la población, la explotación insostenible y la mala regulación de los Estados ribereños han sido los principales factores que han dado lugar, en la última década, a la dramática reducción del nivel del Lago Chad. Teniendo en cuenta que los Estados aledaños al Lago, se encuentran inmersos en una Interdependencia Compleja, este nuevo contexto, ha tenido un impacto directo en la región, debido a que ha agravado otras variables económicas, sociales, ambientales y políticas, dejando un ambiente de inseguridad regional. De esta manera, la reducción de la Cuenca del Lago Chad representa una amenaza compartida que vincula estrechamente a Nigeria, Níger, Chad y Camerún, lo que permite vislumbrar la existencia de un Subcomplejo de Seguridad Regional.

La piratería de Nigeria como una amenaza a la seguridad marítima del Golfo de Guinea (2007-2012). Una aproximación desde el crimen organizado

Desde finales de los 70 la piratería se convirtió en un problema para Nigeria. Con el tiempo adquirió características del crimen organizado y en 2010 se transformó en un problema transnacional, afectando a Estados del golfo de Guinea. Así, a través de una base conceptual, el estudio de caso concluyó que los factores internos –como la pobreza, debilidad estatal y marginalización- y externos –siendo ellos la falta de políticas internas destinadas a las aguas y la ausencia de estrategias marítimas en la región- de la piratería, crearon una dinámica para que dicha actividad se convirtiera en una amenaza a la seguridad marítima del golfo de Guinea, tomando como referencia a Benín y Togo. Siguiendo la línea argumentativa, se demuestra que la búsqueda de una solución a la delincuencia marítima ha generado interacciones de seguridad que sugieren las primeras fases de un posible complejo de seguridad regional.

Don't make war, make elections : Franchise extension and violence in XIXth-century Colombia

This paper studies the effect of strengthening democracy, as captured by an increase in voting rights, on the incidence of violent civil conflict in nineteenth-century Colombia. Empirically studying the relationship between democracy and conflict is challenging, not only because of conceptual problems in defining and measuring democracy, but also because political institutions and violence are jointly determined. We take advantage of an experiment of history to examine the impact of one simple, measurable dimension of democracy (the size of the franchise) on con- flict, while at the same time attempting to overcome the identification problem. In 1853, Colombia established universal male suffrage. Using a simple difference-indifferences specification at the municipal level, we find that municipalities where more voters were enfranchised relative to their population experienced fewer violent political battles while the reform was in effect. The results are robust to including a number of additional controls. Moreover, we investigate the potential mechanisms driving the results. In particular, we look at which components of the proportion of new voters in 1853 explain the results, and we examine if results are stronger in places with more political competition and state capacity. We interpret our findings as suggesting that violence in nineteenth-century Colombia was a technology for political elites to compete for the rents from power, and that democracy constituted an alternative way to compete which substituted violence.